New Public Management Essay Example

New Public Management Essay New public management 1-NPM history and evolution A-Performance measures in historical perspective It might seem that debates on the effectiveness of techniques associated with NPM have at best a very limited historical dimension as most academic commentators have taken the view that NPM, as a programme of public-sector reform, dates from the early 1980s. However, this does not mean that techniques identified with NPM and debates around such techniques do not predate NPM as a reform programme. To illustrate the operation of public management before NPM three examples are used. The following selection criteria are deployed: that performance measures linked to a policy goal and mechanisms designed to improve performance in terms of the indicators are used; and that the public-sector programme in which the performance management techniques are applied has substantial population coverage, i. e. these are examples of substantial public-service programmes. The examples used are: the attempt to manage performance standards in elementary education following the Revised Code of 1862 till the de facto abandonment of the policy in the mid-1890s; the crusade against out relief under the Poor Law in England and Wales between circa 1870 and the early 1890s; and attempts to encourage higher acute hospital throughput in the National Health Service (NHS) in the 1950s. The term elementary education was used in nineteenth-century Britain to refer to the formal education provided for the working class. We will write a custom essay sample on New Public Management specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on New Public Management specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on New Public Management specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer At the point at which the Revised Code was introduced the state provided subsidies to voluntary provision of elementary education (in the two decades preceding the introduction of the Code, central government expenditure on education had quadrupled). Over the period during which the policy operated (to 1895) the number of children in state-regulated elementary schools in Great Britain increased almost fivefold from just fewer than 1 million to 4. million (the total population increased from 23. 7 to 34. 6 million over the same period). Grants were regulated by codes and the Revised Code, which was introduced in English schools in 1863, was designed to deal with a perceived deficiency in elementary education. It was argued that teachers devoted excessive time to teaching older children and consequently neglected the instruction of younger pupils in what would be currently called basic skills. The performance management policy introduced by the Code was to link grant payments to schools with the success of children in examinations in elementary reading, writing and arithmetic, where failure in any of these subject areas, in an examination administered by a government inspector, would result in loss of a substantial portion of the grant. Over the three decades of its operation the policy went through a series of complex modifications. By the mid-1890s a diverse set of objections to the original concept of linking grant to pupil examination performance engendered a shift to a pattern of inspection which removed the obligatory annual examination and allowed inspectors to base their reports on observation of work in schools. The crusade against out relief was a policy which sought radically to reduce numbers on outdoor relief under the locally-administered Poor Law in England and Wales from circa 1870 to the early 1890s. In this period the Poor Law constituted the de facto social security system. At the point at which the policy was initiated there were just over 1 million paupers in England and Wales: around 4. 5 per cent of the population. Most poor relief was given outdoors, i. e. without requiring the recipient of support to enter a workhouse, and at the beginning of the crusade well over 80 per cent of paupers received outdoor relief. The policy was premised on the assumption that outdoor relief was being given indiscriminately, creating dependence on the state. The appropriate response, it was argued, was to manage outdoor relief by applying highly-restrictive rules following the precepts of various strict Poor Law Unions. The key performance indicator was the outdoor pauperism rate (outdoor paupers as a per cent of the population). The overseeing government department, the Local Government Board (henceforth LGB) sought to diffuse best practice by publishing ‘data compares the performance of unions with respect to this indicator and this was designed to show the gap between strict unions and their lax counterparts. Such demonstrations were reinforced by LGB circulars and the power of LGB inspectors to attend meetings of Poor Law Guardians. Initially the policy had a powerful impact and numbers on outdoor relief in England and Wales fell by nearly 40 per cent between 1871 and 1878. Further major reductions were, however, not achieved and numbers on outdoor relief fluctuated around roughly 10 per cent plus or minus the 1878 level for the duration of the policy. The end of the policy is frequently dated at 1893. This date is elected because the Local Government Act of 1894 rendered the Poor Law franchise more democratic and LGB policy, in part reflecting collectivist criticism of the basis of the crusade, became more relaxed, thus 1893 was the final year of radical dispauperisation. The creation of the NHS in 1948 involved a radical shift in population coverage leading to problems in predicting the cost of the Service. This was contributory to major cost over-runs in its first two fiscal years wit h expenditure exceeding the estimate by 39 per cent in 1948-9. While this had a number of effects, pressure for control over expenditure was particularly marked with respect to capital investment. It was generally estimated that capital expenditure on NHS hospitals was running at around one-third of the level of the end of the inter-war period in the early 1950s. Universal access created increased demand for hospital care but restraint on capital expenditure meant that the scope for increasing capacity by adding hospital beds was very limited. This tension generated interest within the Ministry of Health in more intensive use of hospital beds. This interest was exemplified in a detailed discussion in the Chief Medical Officers report for 1952. Hospital throughput (officially defined as the numbers discharged from, or died in, hospital per available bed) was conceptualised as a key performance indicator. The report included data contrasting throughput rates in NHS hospitals and also advanced various suggestions for managing throughput. These included proposals related to the impact of professional practice on throughput and it were suggested that encouraging patients to be ambulant at an earlier stage would allow for earlier discharge. As with the Poor Law crusade, the aim was to construct a standard of best practice. Thus throughput rates achieved in other jurisdictions (Canada and the United States) were treated as objectives to be aimed at, and recommended practices such as early ambulation played an equivalent role to strict rules on outdoor relief. There was a substantial increase in throughput in NHS hospitals in the 1950s. Thus between 1949 and 1960 while available beds increased by 5. 5 per cent the numbers of patients discharged/died increased by 40 per cent. There was no abandonment of an interest in increasing acute hospital throughput but, by the early 1960s, there was a major contextual change. As was indicated above, the emphasis on throughput in the 1950s was strongly related to very low levels of capital investment. In contrast the 1962 Hospital Plan, while arguably delivering a lot less than it promised, did create a commitment to a much larger long-term capital programme B-New public management definition New public management is a management philosophy used by governments since the 1980s to modernize the public sector. New public management is a broad and very complex term used to describe the wave of public sector reforms throughout the world since the 1980s. The main hypothesis in the NPM-reform wave is that more market orientation in the public sector will lead to greater cost-efficiency for governments, without having negative side effects on other objectives and considerations. NPM is represents a new paradigm or not, its attempt to transform the public sector through organizational reforms that focus on results in terms of efficiency, effectiveness, and quality of service appears to fit nicely into the larger, political theory of governance. NPM is: An important aspect of the New Labour legacy a decade after the election of the first Blair administration has been the commitment to reforming public services using managerial techniques associated with New Public Management (NPM). Also this commitment has been embodied in institutional changes such as the creation of the Prime Ministers Delivery Unit and the creation, under the aegis of the Treasury of Public Service Agreements designed to link public funding with explicit performance targets. NPM is the â€Å"shift in public management styles† (or public management reform) â€Å"consists of deliberate changes to the structures and processes of public sector organizations with the objective of getting them (in some sense) to run better†. 2-Key mechanism of NPM People (political leaders and civil servants) are those who manage public resources by issuing and implementing policies, strategies, programs, projects. People (civil society) are those who benefit from the results as well. That is why people are viewed as the key mechanism of the NPM: people for people. The NPM needs competent and committed managers, which implement policies and provide services to the public in ways that are: †¢ Low cost – economical; †¢ Maximizing outputs within budgets through good work practice – efficient; †¢ Satisfying clients/customers with quality – effective; †¢ Seen as friendly, fair and honest – ethical; Open, keeping the public well informed – accountable (to end users). †¢ Consultative, taking into account priorities of clients (including those of the disadvantaged categories) – responsive. †¢ Adaptable, selecting what appears to generate positive outcomes and giving up what is harmful for the economy, for the society, for the environment – eclectic. 3-NPM changes in structural (hierarchical) changes: 1- Decision making is decentralized, made at the location close to where the business activity is taking place 2-Structures evolve from hierarchical to flat networked -All the elements of the society are connected, 4-communicate with one another Structural change includes: †¢ Retrenchment or downsizing the public sector organizations †¢ Merging or splitting the departments, in order to improve coordination or to sharpen focus and encourage specialization †¢ Privatization †¢ Decentralization †¢ Corporatization or agentification NPM changes 🙠 processes changes): †¢ New financial management procedures †¢ New performance management procedures †¢ Explicit standards and measures of performance †¢ Output controls †¢ Parsimony in resource use Competition †¢ Incentivization †¢ Public value management and public value pragmatism generated by: networked governance or collaborative government or public-private partnerships or joined-up government †¢ Fostering dialogue with civil society i. e. information, consultation, active participation as a result of Building open government and a citizen-centered governance i. e. accountability, transparency, openness. Developing a comprehensive legislative or regulatory framework for enha ncing transparency and accountability of lobbying. While process change includes †¢ Hands-on professional management †¢ Private sector styles of management practice but moderation in †¢Running government like a business †¢ Flexibilization of previous practices in personnel, IT, public procurement and other functions, generated by the disaggregation †¢ The use of market-type mechanisms †¢ Liberalization †¢ Modernization of services delivery mechanisms (e. g. introduction of the government. 4-Core of new public management: Core of â€Å"New Public Management† Not what government ought to do. But how to do it better†¢ Sometimes advanced as the best solution to†¢ government’s key problems–Builds on principal-agent models and new institution economic 5- Basic elements of new public management strategies: 1-Strategic Planning From incremental to comprehensive look at Government activities How: devise a plan for future Goal: produce consensus of government’s direction 2-Incentives †¢ From authority and control to markets and results How: – Create semi-autonomous agencies – Write contracts to structure government work †¢ Goal: replace top-down control with bottom-up focus on results 3- Flexibility From rule based to results based accountability †¢ How: employee empowerment, market based incentives †¢ Goal: free employees to do what they know is right Results †¢ From focus on inputs to results †¢ Defining results but how? – Outputs: government activity- service delivery – Outcome: impact of government activity †¢ How: measure, reward results †¢ Goal: fundamentally transform government’s operations 4-Results †¢ From focus on inputs to results †¢ Defining results but how? – Outputs: government activity- service delivery – Outcome: impact of government activity †¢ How: measure, reward results Goal: fundamentally transform Government’s operati ons 6-civil service paradigm under resulted oriented management 5. 5 Modernisation of Civil Service Management Systems Computerized System of Integrated Personnel and Payroll Management ( known as â€Å"Postes Budgetaires†), Under the new personnel management system, as laid down in the Standing Orders, the post has become the central point in management, around which incumbents and salaries revolve. Following this innovation, the Government will put in place a computerized system of integrated personnel-payroll management. This system is designed to establish a local and country-wide network covering the entire civil service. Its centre will be within the Ministry of Civil Service and Labour, from where it will be connected to the different Ministries, Government institutions and all provinces in the country. This computerized system will help achieve the following: †¢Day-to-day control of personnel movements; †¢Efficient control of payrolls and monitoring of posts to be filled; †¢Forecasting and planning personnel requirements; Adapting better the personnel in place to approved posts, on the one hand, and the same personnel to available budget appropriations, on the other hand. †¢Getting prompt access to data on civil servants †¢The way forward †¢Installing the computerized system of integrated civil service resource management; †¢Preparing the training programme and training sessions for users of the above system in Ministries and Provinces †¢Extending the comp uterized system to the entire public sector 7- NPM benefits and weaknesses: Benefits of new public management: To quote Hughes, I comment that NPM is based on: a belief in the Primacy of economics, the usefulness of private management methods, and a desire to reduce bureaucracy. It has a more flexible labour market and Emphasize on customer driven change. It is for this reason that NPM can make the Allocation of resource more effective. To borrow Hughes phase, NPM is a Change from an administration and professional bureaucracy to a more managerial and Market-based system after pointing out those words, he goes on to Say, those changes in the machinery of government as the move from policy Administration to policy management. This clearly shows that NPM is the attempt to implement management ideas from business and private sector into the public service. In Britain the traditional techniques of social administration have been practiced over The past decade and a half its trait is bureaucracy , routinization , focused upon procedures rather than outcomes , and run for the producers rather than for the final consumers . the traditional techniques of social administration have their own problem and on account of the new right thinking . NPM started to be practiced in the public sector. What are the benefits of NPM? The Strategy of NPM can make public sector practice efficiency and solve the old problems. The features of new public management are the difference between traditional public administration . NPM wants the reduction of bureaucracy and to make organization flexible ,so at the same time it can attain with the three Es : economy ,effectiveness and efficiency . NPM attaches importance to the three Es : ,and achievement measurement and rational strategic disciplines . NPM also puts emphasis on devolution of responsibility and letting the market handle itself ,accordingly to a focus on competition and market testing makes it clear that NPM has more in common with a dynamic business . is customer –or market-driven ,and is more concerned with managing services and recourses then providing policy advice for ministers . That is to say . NPM pays much attention to monetary incentives , demand led and customer driven ideas . From this view point ,one may say that the devolved system of financial accountability should help focus resource allocation and decision –making, These results lead us to the conclusion that the NPM increases elements of accountability in the policy process and a more confident and authoritative directive ,for public agencies. It also makes more realistic strategic short- and medium- Term planning in the public sector. The emphasis is to make Governments smaller and more efficient by making greater use of markets, Competition, contracting out, and setting performance targets. The NPM reveals that government’s . oth local and central are urged to provide a satisfactory service to customers. All in all . NPM maybe can help public sector reform and discover the new way to practice. Weakness of NPM New public management (NPM) is one of the most striking international trends in Public administration in the 1980s ,even though there are many different kinds Of definition for NPM , I draw a conclusion to collect the thought in this article. There are four main ideas associated with NPM: first, it is transforming bureaucratic democratically and passive policy into efficient and effective policy, . econd, it brings the business market methods from private sectors into public, in order to make them quasi-markets and based on customer –demands. Third, it manages the increasing expenditure to make the government more economical fourth, it makes the public sectors steer the private sectors. In recent years . NPM trend has sustained influence all over the world and the best known cases are united-kingdom, New Zealand and Australia. I would like to confer the united-kingdom Case of example and try to find weaknesses of the NPM in this article. Over the past few decades’ . considerable number of studies have been conducted on that NPM is good for our government, however larbi (1999) found out that there are some problems with the NPM in united-kingd om. These include the following: †¢ Most of the civil service resistance the decentralized control, even if the Government wants them to do the NPM, they are reluctance with it. †¢They wants to keep the traditional practice and not to change to another framework, but they also know that NPM is trend †¢The technical systems do not work very well, sometimes they can manipulate by management. Then he pointed out that united-kingdom experience with management devolution just changed the exterior to seem like decentralized but the core of the system still Centralized. For example: some of the ministers or top bureaucrats at the central do not like their power to be expropriated. That is say they do not like to be decentralized At all, they just do things perfunctory to let others seem like they are changed. Through some of people do not have good impressions with NPM; we still have to spread the NPM ideas to let more people understand it and can try to find the best way to do with the NPM. In my opinion, I also find out two problems with the NPM, they are not only with the United-kingdom but also with NPM trend counties. one is about the NPM system: NPM is an effective and efficiency policy and we need to evaluate its work, but now we do not have a complete system to evaluate However if just put our emphasis on its but come rather than its presses, maybe we might have blind sport in it . the other problem I find is about the quasi-market and The customer demands: if the government just gives the things to the needy people that they want, it probably cost a lot of expenditure. And that will be against the NPMs economic idea. So far, we have seen some defects with the NPM. Occasionally it is not a perfect idea and still has room for improvement. If we can find out ways to straighten out its problems, maybe NPM can become more mature and suitable for all countries. List of References †¢Boston, J. Martin, J. Pallot, and P. Walsh, Public Management: The New Zealand Model. Auckland: Oxford University Press, 1996 †¢Kelly, R. M. 1998. â€Å"An Inclusive Democratic Polity, Representative Bureaucracies, and the New Public Management. Public Administration Review, Vol. 58, No. 3: 201-207. †¢bill coxall, Lynton robins and Robert leach (2003) contemaporary british Politics new york ; palgrave macmillan †¢MINISTRY OF CIVIL SERVICE B. P. 403 KIGALIB. P. 403 KIGALI †¢Agranoff, R. , McGuire, M. (2003), Collaborative public management: New strategies for local governments. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press †¢unpan1. un. org/intrado c/groups/public/documents/un-dpadm/unpan040197. pdf †¢Dunleavy, P. Hood, C. (1994), From Old Public Administration to New Public Management.

Red Rock West by John Dahl Essays

Red Rock West by John Dahl Essays Red Rock West by John Dahl Essay Red Rock West by John Dahl Essay Red Rock West by John Dahl begins with an opening musical soundtrack which creates a western atmosphere and this is further introduced by a twanging guitar refrain which adds a melancholy texture. It immediately casts a traditional feel about the film enhancing the western culture. The early shots that are exposed of the dusty road introduces isolation and an atmospheric effect. Additionally the landscape that is publicized is desert like and also dusty which then signifies the western theme and the sensation of desolation and barrenness. It then later exhibit’s the plate of the white Cadillac to expose that it had been travelling from Texas. The use of clever establishing shots reveals that no one else is around and the sign which is revealed reads ’Wyoming’. This sets the location perfectly. As the character steps out of his Cadillac he does press-ups in the road which gives the impression that he is very keen on fitness and being in shape but furthermore he ta kes very deep pride in his appearance as a person. This is uncovered aswell when he takes a shave and using the car as a mirror. The character seems to have a support cast on his knee which uncovers an injury. Additional evidence for this is the tattoo on his upper arm which is the symbol of being in the Military Marines. This strongly plays a key part of narrative and portrays a lot more about his past. The injury that was introduced could play an important part to revealing more about him as a person and his past experiences. He later on takes a freshly white pressed shirt out of the back of his white Cadillac which introduces Binary opposition. The same colour from both of those items could indicate the good of the character and this could be significant. He then later goes to the oil works for a job as he doesn’t have much money to carry on his journey in his Cadillac. As it was revealed from before he has travelled from Texas so this job could mean a fresh start ,a chance to start again and he maybe wanted to get away from his past from the marines which could bring back memories of the events that took place. He introduces himself as Michael at his job interview. During the interview Michael proves to be very honest and exposes about his injury on his leg. Later on as the firm doesn’t want him because of his injury he is sent away and his friend offers him money. Michael refuses the money from his friend which indicates him to be a very independent man which is too proud to show a sign of weakness. The sequence at the gas station following after the job interview we learn a lot more about Michael as a person and the location. Again the location created is dusty and shabby which provides the evidence of an deserted loc ation which firmly indicates powerful isolation. Michael looks around the gas station as no one is there and he sees money which is just lying around and also the gas unattended. He indicates at one point as thought he might just take the money and some gas and just take off but instead he doesn’t. We now know that Michael as a character is very honest even though his appearance and actions may not suggest this. Shortly after he travels through the location of Red Rock West Michael ends up at a local bar which seems to be very vacant. The mood that is present has a sense of uneasiness about the place. Another character is introduced which is the owner of the bar called Wayne. The impression of Wayne is that he’s a person that to be messed with. He is highlighted in dark shadows which could suggest the sense of evil in this character. As an audience we get a feeling as though something isn’t right and further more we have evidence which indicates this. Michael gets mistaken for ‘Lyal’. A man that was sent for him to murder his wife. As he keeps getting eluded of jobs because of his injury he then decides to take up Wayne on his offer and takes the money. Here we see the good use of power play between the interaction of these two feisty characters. But also a sign from Michael could portray that he is desperate and will do anything for money which could lead to another side of his character. Overall I thought this film was very creative and that the plot of the film kept you guessing. It was very fast moving and suspenseful also the humour was very nicely understated. I thought that Nicholas Cage who played Michael as the character who bumbles into a murderous plot by accident only wanting to earn a buck and leave but never being able to get away from the town was played brilliantly.

Social Work Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Social Work - Assignment Example Studies conducted over the years have substantiated the effectiveness of family conferencing as a highly beneficial intervention approach that not only help the aggrieved family members in understanding their roles but enable them to learn to resolve the issues and challenges facing them through effective decision making approach and understanding. This approach creates an environment of safety and understanding and promotes leadership and harmony in the process (Merkel-Holguin, 2003). The concept of family group conferencing is rooted in the effective resolution of a problem or issue faced by the family members and through intermediation by society and community who are concerned about the familys safety and well-being. The concept which was first developed and implemented in New Zealand, was adopted throughout the western world, as a support system for caring for families including children and young people. The key focus of this program /approach in the UK is however, on preventing child abuse and neglect through timely intervention. Such methods aim to effectively address the issues of abuse or neglect within a family since such problems are perceived as personal problems faced by the family that can be solved through concerned community members or other members of the family (Pennel, 2004). The effectiveness of the program can be estimated from the fact that about 70 per cent of local authorities in England offer a family group conferencing service, providing intervention and support to a range of family problems and most importantly those involving safety and well-being of children. This method is also highly effective since unlike other approaches, the family group conferencing helps the family come together as a unit to identify and address the problem on hand and solve it themselves with support from the community and /social services. Also this approach is highly recommended since it helps children from

3.Critically discuss the view that political regimes cannot have Essay

3.Critically discuss the view that political regimes cannot have legitimacy without democracy - Essay Example The role of democracy, in this context, is to legitimate what is legal and vice versa. Whether it is a representative democracy or direct democracy, the role of democratic processes is to bring a moral bearing to the legislatures. More broadly, democracy is the force of virtue through which a state can exercise its authority. The rest of this essay will elaborate various facets to the interrelation between legitimacy and democracy. â€Å"the question of the relationship between legitimacy and democracy depends on the relationship between support and democracy, a relationship which is contingent, not axiomatic...Legitimacy and democracy are related if members support an institution only to the extent that they view it as democratic: the relationship between legitimacy and democracy is therefore at the level of beliefs and of beliefs that the institution has to be democratic if it is to be supported.† (Blondel, Sinnott, & Svensson, 1998, p. 10) In liberal democracies, especially, legitimacy of the regime is of paramount importance. What is true for nations is also applicable to supranational entities. The European Union is a case in point, where most nations in the bloc purport to embrace the liberal-democratic constitutional framework. Even the EU constitution is an abstraction of this common theme uniting several nations in the bloc. In the case of the larger entity the EU, as it continues to expand, â€Å"the complex has intensified and has become more and more closely linked to the issue of legitimacy†. (Rosanvallon, 2011, p. 7) It is understood at the time of ratification of the EU constitution that, for the EU to be a democratic conglomeration, gaining legitimacy is an imperative. Equally, the European Parliament is another key institution for maintaining democratic processes within the EU. The Council of Ministers and the national parliaments are expected to play a complementary role in this regard. With thes e expectations of the European

Research the economic impact on India in the world Economy over the Essay

Research the economic impact on India in the world Economy over the last twenty years - Essay Example Agriculture is the most important of them and many of the Indian people make a living out of it. (â€Å"The Indian Economy†) The average per capita income has risen from .25 percent before 1980 to 7 percent by 2006 (â€Å"The economy survey of India 2007†). The growth trend in the Indian economy has brought about many changes in the policy that has opened the economy to foreign trade and significantly low tax rates, direct taxes rates and government influence over majority of investment decision. However, a lot can still be achieved and the growth potential can be increased. Though India’s growth has been well for the past two decades, however, it is not distributed evenly across industries and states. The information and communication technology industry have become highly competitive in the world market, this is because of the high skill levels of Indian IT professional and also many are also required abroad for their knowledge that they have in various fields such as software, engineering and financial sector (â€Å"The Indian Economy†). On the other hand, manufacturing industries have felt behind and improved their performance and outcome only recently. There is a requirement for further institutional reforms, which should, focus on product and labour market at the central and state level (â€Å"The economy survey of India 2007†, 2007). When we compare India’s economy in regards to the currency rate with the United States then it stands at twelfth position. (â€Å"The Indian Economy†) The service industry at present is increasingly and as the young Indians are now getting more comfortable with the English language, it is becoming a focal point for outsourcing activities from major economies such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Customer service and Technical support is the two main outsource activities. One of the important factors for economy growth in developing and developed countries is of the competition

FATA and NWFP Taliban India Security

FATA and NWFP Taliban India Security CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION â€Å"A host of wandering Talib-ul-ilums, who correspond with the theological students in Turkey and live free at the expense of the people.† Winston Churchill, 1898[1] 1. The present ongoing conflict in Pakistans tribal belt and in Afghanistan has serious security implications for India. The Mehsuds, Wazirs and Afridis were the tribals used by the Pakistan Army in 1947-48 to attack the state of Jammu and Kashmir, leading to occupation of what is now called the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). The Pakistan Army again used them before and during the war of 1965. Zia-ul-Haq used them for suppressing a Shia revolt in Gilgit in 1988[2]. The same elements were again used to infiltrate into Kargil, leading to Kargil War. 2. If the US and other NATO forces fail to prevail over these Terrorist Tribesmen in the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal belt, these tribesmen, fresh from their victories in that region, would move over to Kashmir to resume their aggression against India. What we are now seeing in Kashmir is the beginning of the end of one phase of the aggression involving Terrorists of the 1980s vintage. We might see the beginning of a new phase involving better-trained and better-motivated Terrorists of the latest stock. 3. The tribal belt of Pakistan and Afghanistan was the chess board of the ‘Big Game played between colonial powers. The British established ‘Durand Line† demarcating the tribal areas which could not be governed. The British encouraged raising and maintenance of militia in FATA and NWFP, so as to thwart the Russian designs in South Asia, especially India[3]. The area was kept as a buffer to the Russian empire which had reached up to modern Uzbekistan. 4. The militia tribesmen of FATA and NWFP, after the departure of British from the subcontinent, were utilised operationally for the first time by Pakistan in 1947 against India. This strategy highlighted the advantage of utilising non state actors as means of aggression. The tribal invasion of 1947 resulted in occupation of approximately 35% of J K by Pakistan.[4] 5. Approximately 70,000 tribesmen attacked India in 1947 and were driven back up to LOC till ceasefire agreement in 1948[5]. These tribesmen after the attack dispersed back into tribal areas of FATA and NWFP. The tribal populace thereafter supported and participated in the resistance movement confronting the Soviets in Afghanistan. The Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1988, and full attention of these insurgent tribes was shifted to India. The existence of these elements in the FATA and NWFP was not given due consideration by India till late 1980s when insurgency erupted in J K. In past, the tribal militia had no name, but now to keep pace with the media and generate support, the tribesmen have assigned names/nomenclature to their organisations; the most prominent nomenclature amongst all of them being the Taliban[6]. 6. The Taliban is an ideology which majority of insurgent groups find easy to imbibe. The various warring tribes in FATA and NWFP have come under a common umbrella of Taliban ideology in recent years. The main cause for this mass acceptance of Taliban ideology is due to large influx of Al-Qaida operatives post US led â€Å"War on Terror.[7] 7. The resurgence of the Taliban and ongoing CI operations by Pakistan army, along with deteriorating situation in FATA and NWFP has major security implications for India. The proximity of North Indian frontiers to the conflict zone coupled with the current insurgency in JK, the need of the hour is to redefine security policy and take speedy initiatives to put effective deterrent in place. METHODOLOGY 8. Statement of Problem. Considering the continued aggressive attitude of the tribesmen from FATA and NWFP in the past towards India, their reorganisation under Taliban leading to current conflict in Pakistan may result in renewed and increased threat to the North Indian frontiers. The paper seeks to highlight that the Taliban are a threat in being for Indias security. 9. Hypothesis. There is an urgent need to identify the critical vulnerabilities of the Taliban and identify additional security initiatives that need to be undertaken by India. Justification of the Study 10. The threat of Taliban from FATA and NWFP to North Indian frontiers has been underestimated. The tribes in FATA and NWFP have existed as militia and mercenaries for over 100 years; however they have been given nomenclature/name like Taliban only recently. The first organised offensive of these tribesmen into India was in 1947 to annexe the state of J K. Thereafter, since 1990 these tribesmen have infiltrated into J K state as foreign mercenaries / terrorists fuelling insurgency. 11. Considering the continued aggression and threat from the tribesmen from FATA and NWFP since independence of India, there exists a knowledge gap with regard to their origins. Relatively little research has been directed towards exploring their transformation into an umbrella organisation the Taliban, probably because of the obvious difficulties with studying a covert organisation. The absence of a logical explanation for the existence of these aggressive tribesmen as mercenaries and militia has complicated the threat evaluation process. This study describes the Taliban phenomenon, elaborates upon their strengths and weaknesses. The study endeavours to predict the Talibans future strategic course of action and recommends measures to counter their strengths and exploit their weaknesses in order to design a formidable CI/CT effort. The Taliban have emerged as front runner terrorist outfit in the troubled FATA and NWFP. The study of their ideology will also provide inputs towards the ir grand strategy and objectives. All these inputs will enable correct assessment of security threat to India and aid in development of strategy to counter this menace. The thesis may also be of interest to field operatives, helping them to understand their adversary. 12. Scope. The history bears the testimony to the vulnerability of Indian sub continent to invasions from North Western Frontiers. The rise of Taliban in FATA and NWFP of Pakistan, their reorganisation and rejuvenation is of grave concern to India, which cannot be ignored. The paper focuses on the history, ideology and overall grand strategy of Taliban highlighting the impending threat to India and way ahead. Method of Data Collection 13. The data for this paper has been collected primarily through secondary sources, the books available in the library. Some material has also been garnered from various college lectures. Periodicals and papers written by famous socialists and historians have also been referred to. Bibliography is placed at appendix A. 14. Tertiary sources include various articles compiled and published from time to time by renowned authors in various reference books and articles available from the internet. Organisation of dissertation 15. It is proposed to study the subject in the following manner:- (a) Chapter I: Introduction. This chapter describes the purpose of the thesis and the statement of problem. It argues the need for developing a broader understanding of the Taliban in order to develop a better approach to deal with counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism efforts in the North Western frontiers. (b) Chapter II: The Problem Genesis. This chapter covers the historical perspective of the problem. The chapter brings out the circumstances leading to the genesis of the Taliban phenomenon. (c) Chapter III: The Taliban Organisation. Chapter III focuses on the structure of the Taliban. The chapter analyses their formal and informal layout and operational mechanisms. The leadership and decision-making processes of Taliban will also be highlighted to assess the motivation and beliefs of Taliban operatives to give a better understanding of their recruitment and human resource processes. (d) Chapter IV: Analysis of Taliban. Chapter IV analyses the strengths and weaknesses of Taliban utilising the Commanders Estimate of Situation method. The Strategic and Operational Objectives are derived from research. These are analysed to determine strategic and operational Centres of Gravity. Finally critical vulnerabilities are determined, which will be utilised to develop Indian Course of Action to tackle the Taliban menace. (e) Chapter V: Taliban Threat An Indian Perspective. This chapter brings out the national opinion on the existence of Taliban threat. The chapter highlights the vulnerabilities of India and its borders and the threat in being. (f) Chapter VI: Recommendations and Way Out. The final chapter gives a way out for overcoming the emerging Taliban threat. The chapter will suggest recommendations for planning effective CI/CT strategies to counter the Taliban strengths and exploit their weaknesses. CHAPTER II THE PROBLEM GENESIS â€Å"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.† Sun Tzu[8] 1. Introduction. The study of background leading to genesis of Taliban will help in identifying the patterns of past actions of Taliban and aid in analysing current behaviour. This chapter will cover various aspects of Taliban history, highlighting the influence of ancient tribal warrior culture, the invasion by USSR leading to rise of Mujahideen[9], relevance of Madrassas[10] and their religious ideology, civil war following withdrawal of USSR forces, Rise of Taliban, the downfall of Taliban and current insurgency in the Afpak region. [11] History 2. Throughout the history invaders have tried in vain to overpower the Pashtun dominated region of Afpak. The first recorded invasion of this region was by Alexander in 326 BC, thereafter a number of armies appeared on the scene including those of Persian Empire, Huns, Turks, Mongols, British, Russians and recent ones being the US troops[12]. The conquerors were either defeated or absorbed into the tribal culture of the Pashtuns thereby maintaining the independence of the region. Despite the apparent ease in conquering the Pashtun areas, no outside power has ever been able to completely subdue it. The tribal and military orientation has shaped the culture and outlook of the area. As Johnson writes, â€Å"A Pashtun is never at peace, except when he is at war.†[13] The people of this region have therefore for centuries been inclined to reject any form of strict authority even at the cost of discord and insecurity.[14] 3. The â€Å"Great Game† in nineteenth century shaped the current political landscape of the region. The Pashtuns had their first encounter with modern military power through three Anglo- Afghan Wars in 1839, 1878 and 1919[15]. Both Russia and Britain desperately tried to get a foothold in Afghanistan, but were unable to gain headway. Finally both parties agreed to create a buffer in shape of Afghanistan between their zones of influence. The international boundary known as Durand Line was drawn between British India and Afghanistan in 1893[16]. The Pashtuns continued to maintain strong ethnic and family connections across the international boundary. The British accorded the tribes on other side of border a semi autonomous status that was maintained after creation of Pakistan in 1947 in the form of FATA[17]. 4. The Pashtun areas on both sides of Durand Line continued to exist peacefully till 1973, when Zahir Shahs four decade rule ended. The instability after his departure resulted in emergence of Communist ideological Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan and it finally overthrew government in 1978. The Communist reform package, which included drastic changes in land ownership, new taxes, compulsory education for women, and participation of women in non-traditional roles in society, was resisted by traditional and orthodox religious elements of Afghanistan, led by the Mujahedeen of Afghanistan. As Larry P Goodson commented â€Å"These reforms struck at the very heart of the socio-economic structure of Afghanistans rural society; indeed, their sudden nationwide introduction, with no preliminary pilot programs, suggest that this was their real purpose.†[18]Finally, Soviet Union deployed troops in Afghanistan in December 1979 to aid their communist ally against the Islamic militia s and to counter the threat of radical Islamist power along its soft underbelly of the Muslim majority Central Asian republics. The Soviet involvement led to increased Mujahedeen resistance and calls for jihad.[19] 5. The ten year occupation resulted in Soviet 40th army loosing 13,883 personnel, plus 650 more in affiliated units. Despite heavy investments in men and material the Soviets were not able to gain unopposed access. Therefore after a long and costly counter insurgency effort the Soviet Union withdrew its forces from Afghanistan in Feb 1989, leaving a Communist Government headed by Najibullah.[20] 6. The exit of Soviet forces was followed by a civil war which resulted in overthrow of Najibullahs government in April 1992. The defeat of the communist government revealed the differences in the fractured alliances of Mujahedeen parties[21]. Each faction had its leader or warlord in a geographical region of the country with aspirations for power. In fighting broke out among the warlords leading to widespread looting and rapine. This strife between the warlords and a war weary population set the stage for the radical ideas of the Taliban to so easily take hold in Afghanistan. â€Å"The Taliban mythology cites their creation as a reaction to the injustices that were perpetrated during the mujahedin era of Afghan politics.†[22] 7. The cadre of the Taliban emerged from the Pashtun refugee camps. It was there, in some of the Madrassas, that a selectively interpreted version of Islam, Wahabism[23], influenced students (talib) to adopt an ultraconservative approach to social issues and politics[24]. Despite differences with the fundamentalist religion espoused by the Taliban, the people gathered behind them because of promises to deliver peace by eliminating the menace of the warlords and narcotics. This tradition and the aura of a righteous religious student on the quest for peace gave students immense rapport with the Pashtun people. The popularity of the Taliban rapidly spread and they experienced continued success in consolidating power. 8. On 10 Nov 1994 Taliban seized Kandahar, the organisation gained religious legitimacy among the Pashtuns when their leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, wore the sacred cloak of Prophet Mohammad in public and declared himself Amir Al-Muminin (leader of the Faithful)[25]. This event can be considered turning point in the Taliban movement for providing it a charismatic leader, who could thereafter take advantage of the tribal religious sentiments of Pashtuns. 9. After the control of Kandahar, the Taliban progressed in quick succession and by 1997 controlled 95% of Afghanistan. The Taliban established order in Afghanistan, but it was of a fearsome medieval kind. The Talibans government policy had become well known. Women were rendered anonymous, refused work or education. Justice was implemented by Islamic law. Television, music and photographs were banned. Gradually, the Taliban led by Mullah Muhammad Omar lost support of international community and afghan populace due to very strict enforcement of its version of Islamic law. Mullah Omar during his reign in Afghanistan interacted with Osama bin Laden and Taliban hosted Al Qaeda training camps. 10. The attack on United States of America on 11 Sep 01 by Al Qaeda operatives and the Talibans refusal to extradite bin Laden led to launch of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). The operation resulted in rapid fall of Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The majority of Taliban fighters dispersed back into Afghan society, while its leadership went underground. [26] 11. In the Pakistani border areas with Afghanistan, the FATA and areas of NWFP, the tribal populace had supported the Taliban movement since its inception. The populace in these areas has been at odds with the Pakistani security forces since its independence. 12. The current problem of insurgency in Pakistan has roots in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, when FATA was used as launch pad for Mujahedeen sponsored by Pakistan and U.S. These areas turned into hotbed of terrorism, which was further fuelled by Madrassas, continued supply of modern weapons from U.S and heavy influx of Afghan refugees. Once the Soviets were ousted from Afghanistan, majority of foreign Mujahideen settled in FATA and NWFP. The radical elements in FATA and NWFP supported the Taliban after commencement of Operation Enduring Freedom. Therefore Pakistani government became a target for its crucial support to OEF. Pakistani troops are heavily committed to FATA and NWFP, currently over 1, 00,000 troops are deployed to counter pro Taliban terrorists[27]. On 14 Dec 07, the Taliban â€Å"movement† in Pakistan coalesced under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud to form an umbrella organization called Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)[28], having allegiance to Mullah Om ar. Environment 13. The Taliban is an organisation and therefore dependent on environment. The environment in which they operate places constraints and also provides for opportunities. The major components of environment are discussed below. 14. Physical Environment. The most important environmental factor is the physical terrain in which the Taliban operate. The terrain in Afghanistan, FATA and NWFP is very harsh and mountainous covering an approximate area of 270,000 sq miles. The harsh and inaccessible mountainous terrain is conducive for insurgent activities. The area also has inaccessible spaces which are governed by tribes that allow terrorists freedom of manoeuvre[29], while it makes organised conventional military operations ineffective and expensive in terms of troops and resources. The rugged geography has embodied the regions culture, which has remained unaffected by time. 15. Culture. The culture is most important factor concerning the situation. The culture of area depends greatly on Pashtunwali code of honour that predates Islam and is specific to the Pashtun tribes.[31] The Pashtunwali is the traditional norm by which people of Pashtun tribes are expected to conduct themselves. A Pashtun must adhere to the code to maintain his honour and to retain his identity. If one violates this code they are subject to the verdict of Jirga.[32] 16. Religion. The religion is another pillar of the Taliban, Afghanistanis are 99 % Muslim, consisting of 80 % Sunni and 19 % Shia[33]. In Afghanistan, Islam has been mixed with pre-Islamic beliefs and tribal customs of Pashtunwali[34]. The Taliban transformed the tradition to ultra-conservative interpretation of Islam. The basics of this ideology stem from Madrassas founded during the Soviet Afghan war. The increased influence of Saudi Arabia lead to Madrassas shift to orthodox Islam which looks to â€Å"follow Salafist model and thoughts†[35]. The attraction of Salafi movement is rooted in its ability to provide a domain in which a resistance identity is created through discourses, symbols and everyday practices. Within this the members are required to organise themselves into small tight-knit communities that stand distinctly apart from open society. To some extent it can be identified as a sect, demanding complete loyalty, unwavering belief and rigid adherence to a distinctive lifestyl e.[36] However as written by Rashid â€Å"The Taliban represented nobody but themselves and they recognised no Islam except their own.† The majority of Afghanistans populace did not traditionally follow this interpretation of the religion but had to contend with its enforcement during the Taliban reign.[37] 17. Ethnicity. The ethnic breakdown of Afghanistan and Tribal areas of Pakistan is as follows[38]:- Ser No Tribe Percentage (a) Pashtun 42 (b) Aimak 4 (c) Tajik 27 (d) Turkmen 3 (e) Hazara 9 (f) Balochi 2 (g) Uzbek 9 (h) Others 4 Table 1 18. The Pashtuns have a majority in the Taliban Organisation, with minimal participation of other tribes. As a result during the Taliban rule and ensuing insurgency other tribes were targets of attacks. The coalition of northern tribes (Turkman, Tajik and Uzbek) made up bulk of the northern alliance troops that allied with US troops to overthrow Taliban in 2001. 19. Pashtun Tribal Breakdown. The Pashtuns are further sub-divided into several tribes and sub-tribes spread throughout Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pashtuns in Pakistan are larger in number than those of Afghanistan and are mostly concentrated in FATA and NWFP. These tribes are interconnected in a complex interplay of obscure genealogies, mythical folklore, historical alliances and conflicts, which makes it very difficult to differentiate and draw lines between the groups. However, there are five major tribal groups of Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. These are the Durranis, Ghilzai, Karlanri, Sarbani and Ghurghusht, with Durrani and Ghilzai as the most influential (Figure 3).[40] 20. Since 1747, the Durrani tribal confederation has provided the leadership within the Southern Pashtun areas. The trend started with Ahmad Shah Durrani, when he founded the monarchy. Ahmad Shah is considered the founder of modern Afghanistan because he was able to unite the factional tribes. The present President of Afghanistan is also from Durrani tribe. The traditional folklore connects the Durranis with the Sarbani tribal group.[41] 21. The Ghilzai tribal group, which is concentrated in the eastern Afghanistan, has historically been an arch-rival of the Durranis. Some of the important leaders of Taliban today, including Mullah Omar belong to this tribal group.[42] 22. The Karlanris are the third largest group of the Pashtun tribes and are referred to as the hill tribes. They occupy the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Waziristan, Kurram and Peshawar.[43] 23. The Sarbani are divided into two major geographically separated groups. The larger group is located north of Peshawar, while the smaller one is scattered in northern Balochistan. This group because of their links with the Durranis are considered part of the traditional aristocracy of Pashtun tribes.[44] 24. The last major group is Ghurghusht. These are settled throughout northern Balochistan.[45] Some factions of this tribe can also be found in NWFP. Resources 25. The primary sources and assets available to Taliban are religious militant outfits, human terrain[46] or manpower and opium trade. The analysis of Taliban resources can be carried out by determining the availability and quality. The religious militant outfits include Al Qaida and similar sectarian organisations. The Al Qaida provides vital support to the Taliban organisation. The support of Al Qaeda provided the Taliban cause legitimacy in a multitude of intercontinental terrorist organisations. The Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden pledged his support to Mullah Omar, the leader of Taliban. Al Qaeda provides Taliban with assistance in form of financial support, manpower, technology (high end weapons) and training.[47] 26. The other strong supporters of Taliban include Tehreek-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Muhammadi (TNSM), which is active in the FATA and Swat regions of NWFP. [48] There are other supporting insurgent groups from central Asia like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). 27. Few of the Madrassas in the Pashtun belt propagate radical version of Islamic ideology and therefore are convenient recruiting grounds for Taliban. The Leadership of Islamic movement has fallen in the hands of Pashtuns as they were able to oust Soviets. Since the Madrassas had played important role in Anti-Soviet Jihad, these institutions acquired reputation of both as recruiting grounds for Mujahidin and centres of learning.[49] 28. Human terrain. The human terrain [50] is most important asset for the survival of Taliban. There are approximately 28 million Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This large pool of Pashtuns provides recruits, support personnel, money, weapons and an intelligence network to aid in waging insurgency. 29. The Pashtuns have been amenable to Taliban, as they do not dominate the Kabul administration. The Pashtun mistrust of the government was further heightened by inability of Afghan Transitional Administration, as it could not protect Pashtuns from human rights abuses from the warlords and insurgents since fall of the Taliban government. 30. The people and recruits of Taliban after the fall of Kabul remerged with the local populace, providing outstanding and real time intelligence. With more than two generations of war-hardened inhabitants to select from, the Taliban recruited experienced fighters who know the terrain and can survive harsh environment. In addition a large amount of ordnance, weapons and ammunition, which were stored by Mujahedeen during Afghan -Soviet war; have fallen into the hands of Taliban. The human resource factor cannot be a permanent asset for Taliban due to the power struggle between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IROA) and Taliban. 31. Drug Trade. As per the western accounts, the revenue from drug trafficking and Opium trade in Afghanistan can be considered as an asset for Taliban organisation. The Afghanistan with its increased dependence on revenue from Opium trade has turned into a narco-state.[51] The record of 2006 Opium harvest was estimated at over $ 3 billion.[52] The following years estimates are even higher. Afghanistan currently produces 93 percent of the worlds Opium trade and half of Afghanistans GDP depends on the Opium trade.[53] The share of Taliban from the flourishing opium trade is not available. However, it is established that Taliban capitalise on the drug trade by taxing the farmers, landowners and drug traffickers. 32. Historically, on assuming control of Afghanistan, the Taliban agenda was to eliminate Opium trade[54], but now it has become essential for their survival[55]. The Opium serves three main purposes for Taliban:- (a) It provides the populace an illegal economy to operate outside the umbrella of government, to the detriment of Kabul. The drug traffickers and the Taliban mutually support each other with weapons, personnel and funding in a concerted effort to destabilise the current legitimate Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IROA) government. (b) It provides necessary funding for the insurgency.[56] (c) It is primarily exported to the west (affects the western society), especially Europe, where 90 % of heroin supply comes from Afghanistan. Other Environmental Factors 33. The other environmental factors that affect Taliban are the regional players in the South Asia, NGOs and Humanitarian agencies and presence of Coalition forces, which include Pakistani and Afghani soldiers. 34. Regional Players. The regional players directly influence the Taliban as they have direct bearing on the overall political scenario affecting the movement. The area of influence of Taliban stretches across Central Asia to the Indian Subcontinent. This area is of immense strategic importance, its components share historical roots, affinities and enmities having overbearing influence on interrelationships and domestic issues. Most of the Afghanistans issues considered as domestic are more likely regional in character.[57] 35. Pakistan. The direct involvement of Pakistan in Soviet-Afghan war, in support of Mujahidin, along with United States of America and Saudi Arabia has created a complex legacy that is affecting Pakistan even today because of continuous turmoil and violence linked to the issue. Pakistan has critical interests in Afghanistans stability because of close economic and cultural links. The stable Afghanistan provides for economic opportunities for Pakistan, as it ensures access to resource rich Central Asian region. The stability will also ensure stability in Pashtun dominated western Pakistan, where at present Taliban presence is destabilising the entire FATA and NWFP. 36. Months after the official beginning of Operation Enduring Freedom, Al Qaeda and Taliban militants poured over Afghanistans border into Pakistan and found refuge in FATA. The region home to more than 3 million Pashtuns was an ideal sanctuary. The tribes native to FATA adhere to the pre-Islamic tribal code of Pashtunwali, which by custom extends assistance to strangers who request protection. By spring 2002, less than a year after the initial invasion of Afghanistan, that sanctuary became even safer after President Bush decided to pull most of Americas Special Operations Forces and CIA paramilitary operatives off the hunt for Osama bin Laden, so they could be redeployed for a possible war in Iraq.[58] All of these factors greatly alleviated pressure on the remaining Taliban and Al Qaeda forces. Between spring 2002 and spring 2008, militants were able to consolidate their holdover north-western Pakistan. Baluchistans capital, Quetta, is home of the Talibans main Shura or council.[59 ] The Talibans overall leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar has found refuge in the city.[60] The support of Pakistan to Taliban is considered essential till they gain strong foothold in Afghanistan. However few western writers contend that the Taliban have already taken control of 10% to 20 % of area in Afghanistan, and therefore no longer require sanctuary in Pakistan. The ISI has already drawn distinction between extremist groups focused on destabilising Pakistan and those primarily concerned with war in Afghanistan. On ground, the Taliban based in Pakistan (TTP) have taken allegiance to Mullah Omar, the supreme Commander of Taliban. Also Pakistan being a strategic partner of coalition forces, the pressure to cleanse the Taliban sanctuaries is mounting.[61] 37. Iran[62]. The proximity of Iran with Afghanistan has not resulted in cultural affinities, except in Herat area. Iran never gave importance to Afghanistan until Soviet invasion. Irans primary focus was on the Persian Gulf region. Afghanistan is today strategically important due to concern that other powers might take advantage of weak state to menace Iran. The Iranian belligerence with Taliban is resulting from their Sunni outlook and prosecution of Shia minorities. At present Iran is interested in expanding its economic role in Afghanistan. A stable afghan state is beneficial to Iran in long run, so it opposes a Taliban led insurgency. However, there have been reports of Iran supporting the Taliban covertly.[63] Iranian actions may be due to close relations of IROA with United States of America. Because of US-Iranian incompatibility, the Iranian long-term strategic interests are in jeopardy due to sustained US presence in Afghanistan. Therefore, Iran may manipulate Taliban insurgency to its ow n advantage.[64] If this situation materialises, the Taliban may be able to overcome some key shortfalls (like advanced anti-air weaponry, guided missiles) and gain inroads into Shia groups in Afghanistan (mainly Hazara tribe). 38. Soviet Central Asian Republics. The former Soviet Central Asian Republics also influence the current situation. Their ethnic ties with the non-Pashtun northern Afghanistan minorities have made them oppose the Taliban due its pro FATA and NWFP Taliban India Security FATA and NWFP Taliban India Security CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION â€Å"A host of wandering Talib-ul-ilums, who correspond with the theological students in Turkey and live free at the expense of the people.† Winston Churchill, 1898[1] 1. The present ongoing conflict in Pakistans tribal belt and in Afghanistan has serious security implications for India. The Mehsuds, Wazirs and Afridis were the tribals used by the Pakistan Army in 1947-48 to attack the state of Jammu and Kashmir, leading to occupation of what is now called the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). The Pakistan Army again used them before and during the war of 1965. Zia-ul-Haq used them for suppressing a Shia revolt in Gilgit in 1988[2]. The same elements were again used to infiltrate into Kargil, leading to Kargil War. 2. If the US and other NATO forces fail to prevail over these Terrorist Tribesmen in the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal belt, these tribesmen, fresh from their victories in that region, would move over to Kashmir to resume their aggression against India. What we are now seeing in Kashmir is the beginning of the end of one phase of the aggression involving Terrorists of the 1980s vintage. We might see the beginning of a new phase involving better-trained and better-motivated Terrorists of the latest stock. 3. The tribal belt of Pakistan and Afghanistan was the chess board of the ‘Big Game played between colonial powers. The British established ‘Durand Line† demarcating the tribal areas which could not be governed. The British encouraged raising and maintenance of militia in FATA and NWFP, so as to thwart the Russian designs in South Asia, especially India[3]. The area was kept as a buffer to the Russian empire which had reached up to modern Uzbekistan. 4. The militia tribesmen of FATA and NWFP, after the departure of British from the subcontinent, were utilised operationally for the first time by Pakistan in 1947 against India. This strategy highlighted the advantage of utilising non state actors as means of aggression. The tribal invasion of 1947 resulted in occupation of approximately 35% of J K by Pakistan.[4] 5. Approximately 70,000 tribesmen attacked India in 1947 and were driven back up to LOC till ceasefire agreement in 1948[5]. These tribesmen after the attack dispersed back into tribal areas of FATA and NWFP. The tribal populace thereafter supported and participated in the resistance movement confronting the Soviets in Afghanistan. The Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1988, and full attention of these insurgent tribes was shifted to India. The existence of these elements in the FATA and NWFP was not given due consideration by India till late 1980s when insurgency erupted in J K. In past, the tribal militia had no name, but now to keep pace with the media and generate support, the tribesmen have assigned names/nomenclature to their organisations; the most prominent nomenclature amongst all of them being the Taliban[6]. 6. The Taliban is an ideology which majority of insurgent groups find easy to imbibe. The various warring tribes in FATA and NWFP have come under a common umbrella of Taliban ideology in recent years. The main cause for this mass acceptance of Taliban ideology is due to large influx of Al-Qaida operatives post US led â€Å"War on Terror.[7] 7. The resurgence of the Taliban and ongoing CI operations by Pakistan army, along with deteriorating situation in FATA and NWFP has major security implications for India. The proximity of North Indian frontiers to the conflict zone coupled with the current insurgency in JK, the need of the hour is to redefine security policy and take speedy initiatives to put effective deterrent in place. METHODOLOGY 8. Statement of Problem. Considering the continued aggressive attitude of the tribesmen from FATA and NWFP in the past towards India, their reorganisation under Taliban leading to current conflict in Pakistan may result in renewed and increased threat to the North Indian frontiers. The paper seeks to highlight that the Taliban are a threat in being for Indias security. 9. Hypothesis. There is an urgent need to identify the critical vulnerabilities of the Taliban and identify additional security initiatives that need to be undertaken by India. Justification of the Study 10. The threat of Taliban from FATA and NWFP to North Indian frontiers has been underestimated. The tribes in FATA and NWFP have existed as militia and mercenaries for over 100 years; however they have been given nomenclature/name like Taliban only recently. The first organised offensive of these tribesmen into India was in 1947 to annexe the state of J K. Thereafter, since 1990 these tribesmen have infiltrated into J K state as foreign mercenaries / terrorists fuelling insurgency. 11. Considering the continued aggression and threat from the tribesmen from FATA and NWFP since independence of India, there exists a knowledge gap with regard to their origins. Relatively little research has been directed towards exploring their transformation into an umbrella organisation the Taliban, probably because of the obvious difficulties with studying a covert organisation. The absence of a logical explanation for the existence of these aggressive tribesmen as mercenaries and militia has complicated the threat evaluation process. This study describes the Taliban phenomenon, elaborates upon their strengths and weaknesses. The study endeavours to predict the Talibans future strategic course of action and recommends measures to counter their strengths and exploit their weaknesses in order to design a formidable CI/CT effort. The Taliban have emerged as front runner terrorist outfit in the troubled FATA and NWFP. The study of their ideology will also provide inputs towards the ir grand strategy and objectives. All these inputs will enable correct assessment of security threat to India and aid in development of strategy to counter this menace. The thesis may also be of interest to field operatives, helping them to understand their adversary. 12. Scope. The history bears the testimony to the vulnerability of Indian sub continent to invasions from North Western Frontiers. The rise of Taliban in FATA and NWFP of Pakistan, their reorganisation and rejuvenation is of grave concern to India, which cannot be ignored. The paper focuses on the history, ideology and overall grand strategy of Taliban highlighting the impending threat to India and way ahead. Method of Data Collection 13. The data for this paper has been collected primarily through secondary sources, the books available in the library. Some material has also been garnered from various college lectures. Periodicals and papers written by famous socialists and historians have also been referred to. Bibliography is placed at appendix A. 14. Tertiary sources include various articles compiled and published from time to time by renowned authors in various reference books and articles available from the internet. Organisation of dissertation 15. It is proposed to study the subject in the following manner:- (a) Chapter I: Introduction. This chapter describes the purpose of the thesis and the statement of problem. It argues the need for developing a broader understanding of the Taliban in order to develop a better approach to deal with counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism efforts in the North Western frontiers. (b) Chapter II: The Problem Genesis. This chapter covers the historical perspective of the problem. The chapter brings out the circumstances leading to the genesis of the Taliban phenomenon. (c) Chapter III: The Taliban Organisation. Chapter III focuses on the structure of the Taliban. The chapter analyses their formal and informal layout and operational mechanisms. The leadership and decision-making processes of Taliban will also be highlighted to assess the motivation and beliefs of Taliban operatives to give a better understanding of their recruitment and human resource processes. (d) Chapter IV: Analysis of Taliban. Chapter IV analyses the strengths and weaknesses of Taliban utilising the Commanders Estimate of Situation method. The Strategic and Operational Objectives are derived from research. These are analysed to determine strategic and operational Centres of Gravity. Finally critical vulnerabilities are determined, which will be utilised to develop Indian Course of Action to tackle the Taliban menace. (e) Chapter V: Taliban Threat An Indian Perspective. This chapter brings out the national opinion on the existence of Taliban threat. The chapter highlights the vulnerabilities of India and its borders and the threat in being. (f) Chapter VI: Recommendations and Way Out. The final chapter gives a way out for overcoming the emerging Taliban threat. The chapter will suggest recommendations for planning effective CI/CT strategies to counter the Taliban strengths and exploit their weaknesses. CHAPTER II THE PROBLEM GENESIS â€Å"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.† Sun Tzu[8] 1. Introduction. The study of background leading to genesis of Taliban will help in identifying the patterns of past actions of Taliban and aid in analysing current behaviour. This chapter will cover various aspects of Taliban history, highlighting the influence of ancient tribal warrior culture, the invasion by USSR leading to rise of Mujahideen[9], relevance of Madrassas[10] and their religious ideology, civil war following withdrawal of USSR forces, Rise of Taliban, the downfall of Taliban and current insurgency in the Afpak region. [11] History 2. Throughout the history invaders have tried in vain to overpower the Pashtun dominated region of Afpak. The first recorded invasion of this region was by Alexander in 326 BC, thereafter a number of armies appeared on the scene including those of Persian Empire, Huns, Turks, Mongols, British, Russians and recent ones being the US troops[12]. The conquerors were either defeated or absorbed into the tribal culture of the Pashtuns thereby maintaining the independence of the region. Despite the apparent ease in conquering the Pashtun areas, no outside power has ever been able to completely subdue it. The tribal and military orientation has shaped the culture and outlook of the area. As Johnson writes, â€Å"A Pashtun is never at peace, except when he is at war.†[13] The people of this region have therefore for centuries been inclined to reject any form of strict authority even at the cost of discord and insecurity.[14] 3. The â€Å"Great Game† in nineteenth century shaped the current political landscape of the region. The Pashtuns had their first encounter with modern military power through three Anglo- Afghan Wars in 1839, 1878 and 1919[15]. Both Russia and Britain desperately tried to get a foothold in Afghanistan, but were unable to gain headway. Finally both parties agreed to create a buffer in shape of Afghanistan between their zones of influence. The international boundary known as Durand Line was drawn between British India and Afghanistan in 1893[16]. The Pashtuns continued to maintain strong ethnic and family connections across the international boundary. The British accorded the tribes on other side of border a semi autonomous status that was maintained after creation of Pakistan in 1947 in the form of FATA[17]. 4. The Pashtun areas on both sides of Durand Line continued to exist peacefully till 1973, when Zahir Shahs four decade rule ended. The instability after his departure resulted in emergence of Communist ideological Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan and it finally overthrew government in 1978. The Communist reform package, which included drastic changes in land ownership, new taxes, compulsory education for women, and participation of women in non-traditional roles in society, was resisted by traditional and orthodox religious elements of Afghanistan, led by the Mujahedeen of Afghanistan. As Larry P Goodson commented â€Å"These reforms struck at the very heart of the socio-economic structure of Afghanistans rural society; indeed, their sudden nationwide introduction, with no preliminary pilot programs, suggest that this was their real purpose.†[18]Finally, Soviet Union deployed troops in Afghanistan in December 1979 to aid their communist ally against the Islamic militia s and to counter the threat of radical Islamist power along its soft underbelly of the Muslim majority Central Asian republics. The Soviet involvement led to increased Mujahedeen resistance and calls for jihad.[19] 5. The ten year occupation resulted in Soviet 40th army loosing 13,883 personnel, plus 650 more in affiliated units. Despite heavy investments in men and material the Soviets were not able to gain unopposed access. Therefore after a long and costly counter insurgency effort the Soviet Union withdrew its forces from Afghanistan in Feb 1989, leaving a Communist Government headed by Najibullah.[20] 6. The exit of Soviet forces was followed by a civil war which resulted in overthrow of Najibullahs government in April 1992. The defeat of the communist government revealed the differences in the fractured alliances of Mujahedeen parties[21]. Each faction had its leader or warlord in a geographical region of the country with aspirations for power. In fighting broke out among the warlords leading to widespread looting and rapine. This strife between the warlords and a war weary population set the stage for the radical ideas of the Taliban to so easily take hold in Afghanistan. â€Å"The Taliban mythology cites their creation as a reaction to the injustices that were perpetrated during the mujahedin era of Afghan politics.†[22] 7. The cadre of the Taliban emerged from the Pashtun refugee camps. It was there, in some of the Madrassas, that a selectively interpreted version of Islam, Wahabism[23], influenced students (talib) to adopt an ultraconservative approach to social issues and politics[24]. Despite differences with the fundamentalist religion espoused by the Taliban, the people gathered behind them because of promises to deliver peace by eliminating the menace of the warlords and narcotics. This tradition and the aura of a righteous religious student on the quest for peace gave students immense rapport with the Pashtun people. The popularity of the Taliban rapidly spread and they experienced continued success in consolidating power. 8. On 10 Nov 1994 Taliban seized Kandahar, the organisation gained religious legitimacy among the Pashtuns when their leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, wore the sacred cloak of Prophet Mohammad in public and declared himself Amir Al-Muminin (leader of the Faithful)[25]. This event can be considered turning point in the Taliban movement for providing it a charismatic leader, who could thereafter take advantage of the tribal religious sentiments of Pashtuns. 9. After the control of Kandahar, the Taliban progressed in quick succession and by 1997 controlled 95% of Afghanistan. The Taliban established order in Afghanistan, but it was of a fearsome medieval kind. The Talibans government policy had become well known. Women were rendered anonymous, refused work or education. Justice was implemented by Islamic law. Television, music and photographs were banned. Gradually, the Taliban led by Mullah Muhammad Omar lost support of international community and afghan populace due to very strict enforcement of its version of Islamic law. Mullah Omar during his reign in Afghanistan interacted with Osama bin Laden and Taliban hosted Al Qaeda training camps. 10. The attack on United States of America on 11 Sep 01 by Al Qaeda operatives and the Talibans refusal to extradite bin Laden led to launch of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). The operation resulted in rapid fall of Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The majority of Taliban fighters dispersed back into Afghan society, while its leadership went underground. [26] 11. In the Pakistani border areas with Afghanistan, the FATA and areas of NWFP, the tribal populace had supported the Taliban movement since its inception. The populace in these areas has been at odds with the Pakistani security forces since its independence. 12. The current problem of insurgency in Pakistan has roots in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, when FATA was used as launch pad for Mujahedeen sponsored by Pakistan and U.S. These areas turned into hotbed of terrorism, which was further fuelled by Madrassas, continued supply of modern weapons from U.S and heavy influx of Afghan refugees. Once the Soviets were ousted from Afghanistan, majority of foreign Mujahideen settled in FATA and NWFP. The radical elements in FATA and NWFP supported the Taliban after commencement of Operation Enduring Freedom. Therefore Pakistani government became a target for its crucial support to OEF. Pakistani troops are heavily committed to FATA and NWFP, currently over 1, 00,000 troops are deployed to counter pro Taliban terrorists[27]. On 14 Dec 07, the Taliban â€Å"movement† in Pakistan coalesced under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud to form an umbrella organization called Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)[28], having allegiance to Mullah Om ar. Environment 13. The Taliban is an organisation and therefore dependent on environment. The environment in which they operate places constraints and also provides for opportunities. The major components of environment are discussed below. 14. Physical Environment. The most important environmental factor is the physical terrain in which the Taliban operate. The terrain in Afghanistan, FATA and NWFP is very harsh and mountainous covering an approximate area of 270,000 sq miles. The harsh and inaccessible mountainous terrain is conducive for insurgent activities. The area also has inaccessible spaces which are governed by tribes that allow terrorists freedom of manoeuvre[29], while it makes organised conventional military operations ineffective and expensive in terms of troops and resources. The rugged geography has embodied the regions culture, which has remained unaffected by time. 15. Culture. The culture is most important factor concerning the situation. The culture of area depends greatly on Pashtunwali code of honour that predates Islam and is specific to the Pashtun tribes.[31] The Pashtunwali is the traditional norm by which people of Pashtun tribes are expected to conduct themselves. A Pashtun must adhere to the code to maintain his honour and to retain his identity. If one violates this code they are subject to the verdict of Jirga.[32] 16. Religion. The religion is another pillar of the Taliban, Afghanistanis are 99 % Muslim, consisting of 80 % Sunni and 19 % Shia[33]. In Afghanistan, Islam has been mixed with pre-Islamic beliefs and tribal customs of Pashtunwali[34]. The Taliban transformed the tradition to ultra-conservative interpretation of Islam. The basics of this ideology stem from Madrassas founded during the Soviet Afghan war. The increased influence of Saudi Arabia lead to Madrassas shift to orthodox Islam which looks to â€Å"follow Salafist model and thoughts†[35]. The attraction of Salafi movement is rooted in its ability to provide a domain in which a resistance identity is created through discourses, symbols and everyday practices. Within this the members are required to organise themselves into small tight-knit communities that stand distinctly apart from open society. To some extent it can be identified as a sect, demanding complete loyalty, unwavering belief and rigid adherence to a distinctive lifestyl e.[36] However as written by Rashid â€Å"The Taliban represented nobody but themselves and they recognised no Islam except their own.† The majority of Afghanistans populace did not traditionally follow this interpretation of the religion but had to contend with its enforcement during the Taliban reign.[37] 17. Ethnicity. The ethnic breakdown of Afghanistan and Tribal areas of Pakistan is as follows[38]:- Ser No Tribe Percentage (a) Pashtun 42 (b) Aimak 4 (c) Tajik 27 (d) Turkmen 3 (e) Hazara 9 (f) Balochi 2 (g) Uzbek 9 (h) Others 4 Table 1 18. The Pashtuns have a majority in the Taliban Organisation, with minimal participation of other tribes. As a result during the Taliban rule and ensuing insurgency other tribes were targets of attacks. The coalition of northern tribes (Turkman, Tajik and Uzbek) made up bulk of the northern alliance troops that allied with US troops to overthrow Taliban in 2001. 19. Pashtun Tribal Breakdown. The Pashtuns are further sub-divided into several tribes and sub-tribes spread throughout Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pashtuns in Pakistan are larger in number than those of Afghanistan and are mostly concentrated in FATA and NWFP. These tribes are interconnected in a complex interplay of obscure genealogies, mythical folklore, historical alliances and conflicts, which makes it very difficult to differentiate and draw lines between the groups. However, there are five major tribal groups of Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. These are the Durranis, Ghilzai, Karlanri, Sarbani and Ghurghusht, with Durrani and Ghilzai as the most influential (Figure 3).[40] 20. Since 1747, the Durrani tribal confederation has provided the leadership within the Southern Pashtun areas. The trend started with Ahmad Shah Durrani, when he founded the monarchy. Ahmad Shah is considered the founder of modern Afghanistan because he was able to unite the factional tribes. The present President of Afghanistan is also from Durrani tribe. The traditional folklore connects the Durranis with the Sarbani tribal group.[41] 21. The Ghilzai tribal group, which is concentrated in the eastern Afghanistan, has historically been an arch-rival of the Durranis. Some of the important leaders of Taliban today, including Mullah Omar belong to this tribal group.[42] 22. The Karlanris are the third largest group of the Pashtun tribes and are referred to as the hill tribes. They occupy the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Waziristan, Kurram and Peshawar.[43] 23. The Sarbani are divided into two major geographically separated groups. The larger group is located north of Peshawar, while the smaller one is scattered in northern Balochistan. This group because of their links with the Durranis are considered part of the traditional aristocracy of Pashtun tribes.[44] 24. The last major group is Ghurghusht. These are settled throughout northern Balochistan.[45] Some factions of this tribe can also be found in NWFP. Resources 25. The primary sources and assets available to Taliban are religious militant outfits, human terrain[46] or manpower and opium trade. The analysis of Taliban resources can be carried out by determining the availability and quality. The religious militant outfits include Al Qaida and similar sectarian organisations. The Al Qaida provides vital support to the Taliban organisation. The support of Al Qaeda provided the Taliban cause legitimacy in a multitude of intercontinental terrorist organisations. The Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden pledged his support to Mullah Omar, the leader of Taliban. Al Qaeda provides Taliban with assistance in form of financial support, manpower, technology (high end weapons) and training.[47] 26. The other strong supporters of Taliban include Tehreek-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Muhammadi (TNSM), which is active in the FATA and Swat regions of NWFP. [48] There are other supporting insurgent groups from central Asia like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). 27. Few of the Madrassas in the Pashtun belt propagate radical version of Islamic ideology and therefore are convenient recruiting grounds for Taliban. The Leadership of Islamic movement has fallen in the hands of Pashtuns as they were able to oust Soviets. Since the Madrassas had played important role in Anti-Soviet Jihad, these institutions acquired reputation of both as recruiting grounds for Mujahidin and centres of learning.[49] 28. Human terrain. The human terrain [50] is most important asset for the survival of Taliban. There are approximately 28 million Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This large pool of Pashtuns provides recruits, support personnel, money, weapons and an intelligence network to aid in waging insurgency. 29. The Pashtuns have been amenable to Taliban, as they do not dominate the Kabul administration. The Pashtun mistrust of the government was further heightened by inability of Afghan Transitional Administration, as it could not protect Pashtuns from human rights abuses from the warlords and insurgents since fall of the Taliban government. 30. The people and recruits of Taliban after the fall of Kabul remerged with the local populace, providing outstanding and real time intelligence. With more than two generations of war-hardened inhabitants to select from, the Taliban recruited experienced fighters who know the terrain and can survive harsh environment. In addition a large amount of ordnance, weapons and ammunition, which were stored by Mujahedeen during Afghan -Soviet war; have fallen into the hands of Taliban. The human resource factor cannot be a permanent asset for Taliban due to the power struggle between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IROA) and Taliban. 31. Drug Trade. As per the western accounts, the revenue from drug trafficking and Opium trade in Afghanistan can be considered as an asset for Taliban organisation. The Afghanistan with its increased dependence on revenue from Opium trade has turned into a narco-state.[51] The record of 2006 Opium harvest was estimated at over $ 3 billion.[52] The following years estimates are even higher. Afghanistan currently produces 93 percent of the worlds Opium trade and half of Afghanistans GDP depends on the Opium trade.[53] The share of Taliban from the flourishing opium trade is not available. However, it is established that Taliban capitalise on the drug trade by taxing the farmers, landowners and drug traffickers. 32. Historically, on assuming control of Afghanistan, the Taliban agenda was to eliminate Opium trade[54], but now it has become essential for their survival[55]. The Opium serves three main purposes for Taliban:- (a) It provides the populace an illegal economy to operate outside the umbrella of government, to the detriment of Kabul. The drug traffickers and the Taliban mutually support each other with weapons, personnel and funding in a concerted effort to destabilise the current legitimate Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IROA) government. (b) It provides necessary funding for the insurgency.[56] (c) It is primarily exported to the west (affects the western society), especially Europe, where 90 % of heroin supply comes from Afghanistan. Other Environmental Factors 33. The other environmental factors that affect Taliban are the regional players in the South Asia, NGOs and Humanitarian agencies and presence of Coalition forces, which include Pakistani and Afghani soldiers. 34. Regional Players. The regional players directly influence the Taliban as they have direct bearing on the overall political scenario affecting the movement. The area of influence of Taliban stretches across Central Asia to the Indian Subcontinent. This area is of immense strategic importance, its components share historical roots, affinities and enmities having overbearing influence on interrelationships and domestic issues. Most of the Afghanistans issues considered as domestic are more likely regional in character.[57] 35. Pakistan. The direct involvement of Pakistan in Soviet-Afghan war, in support of Mujahidin, along with United States of America and Saudi Arabia has created a complex legacy that is affecting Pakistan even today because of continuous turmoil and violence linked to the issue. Pakistan has critical interests in Afghanistans stability because of close economic and cultural links. The stable Afghanistan provides for economic opportunities for Pakistan, as it ensures access to resource rich Central Asian region. The stability will also ensure stability in Pashtun dominated western Pakistan, where at present Taliban presence is destabilising the entire FATA and NWFP. 36. Months after the official beginning of Operation Enduring Freedom, Al Qaeda and Taliban militants poured over Afghanistans border into Pakistan and found refuge in FATA. The region home to more than 3 million Pashtuns was an ideal sanctuary. The tribes native to FATA adhere to the pre-Islamic tribal code of Pashtunwali, which by custom extends assistance to strangers who request protection. By spring 2002, less than a year after the initial invasion of Afghanistan, that sanctuary became even safer after President Bush decided to pull most of Americas Special Operations Forces and CIA paramilitary operatives off the hunt for Osama bin Laden, so they could be redeployed for a possible war in Iraq.[58] All of these factors greatly alleviated pressure on the remaining Taliban and Al Qaeda forces. Between spring 2002 and spring 2008, militants were able to consolidate their holdover north-western Pakistan. Baluchistans capital, Quetta, is home of the Talibans main Shura or council.[59 ] The Talibans overall leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar has found refuge in the city.[60] The support of Pakistan to Taliban is considered essential till they gain strong foothold in Afghanistan. However few western writers contend that the Taliban have already taken control of 10% to 20 % of area in Afghanistan, and therefore no longer require sanctuary in Pakistan. The ISI has already drawn distinction between extremist groups focused on destabilising Pakistan and those primarily concerned with war in Afghanistan. On ground, the Taliban based in Pakistan (TTP) have taken allegiance to Mullah Omar, the supreme Commander of Taliban. Also Pakistan being a strategic partner of coalition forces, the pressure to cleanse the Taliban sanctuaries is mounting.[61] 37. Iran[62]. The proximity of Iran with Afghanistan has not resulted in cultural affinities, except in Herat area. Iran never gave importance to Afghanistan until Soviet invasion. Irans primary focus was on the Persian Gulf region. Afghanistan is today strategically important due to concern that other powers might take advantage of weak state to menace Iran. The Iranian belligerence with Taliban is resulting from their Sunni outlook and prosecution of Shia minorities. At present Iran is interested in expanding its economic role in Afghanistan. A stable afghan state is beneficial to Iran in long run, so it opposes a Taliban led insurgency. However, there have been reports of Iran supporting the Taliban covertly.[63] Iranian actions may be due to close relations of IROA with United States of America. Because of US-Iranian incompatibility, the Iranian long-term strategic interests are in jeopardy due to sustained US presence in Afghanistan. Therefore, Iran may manipulate Taliban insurgency to its ow n advantage.[64] If this situation materialises, the Taliban may be able to overcome some key shortfalls (like advanced anti-air weaponry, guided missiles) and gain inroads into Shia groups in Afghanistan (mainly Hazara tribe). 38. Soviet Central Asian Republics. The former Soviet Central Asian Republics also influence the current situation. Their ethnic ties with the non-Pashtun northern Afghanistan minorities have made them oppose the Taliban due its pro

COBOL, IS IT GOING AWAY? :: essays research papers

  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  On May 28, 1959, the Conference of Data Systems Languages (CODASYL) met for the first time with the idea of developing a universal language for building business applications. That language was COBOL. By 1960, COBOL was commercially ready, and for the next 20 years, more programs were written in COBOL than in any other language. Influenced by FORTRAN, a programming language for the scientific community, and FlowMatic, the group recognized the growing needs of the business community. They thought that if the scientific programmers were going to get a single language, they could do the same for business. In April 1959, at an informal meeting at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, a small group of computer manufacturers, large users and academics asked the Department of Defense (DOD) to head the efforts (The Creation of COBOL,Brandel). The next month, the DOD called the first meeting of CODASYL, which consisted of eight computer manufacturers and a few l arge users. The DOD broke CODASYL into several committees, and by June, the nine member â€Å"short-range committee† was asked to undertake a six-month investigation into developing the language. DOD made COBOL mandatory for all suppliers of computing hardware and software who were bidding of defense procurements (Encyclopedia of Comp.Sci.,page350). This pressure resulted in persuading other suppliers to adopt COBOL also and thus the programming language took off.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  In addition to machine independence, one of the most important requirements of the language was simplicity. The committee wanted the language to be readable by laypeople, which led to the idea of using English (The Creation of COBOL,Brandel). In addition, computer manufacturers were trying to develop their commercial COBOL compilers while COBOL’s specifications were being defined (Creation of COBOL,Brandel). A complete specification was finished in just six months. That was in December 1959. In 1974, COBOL officially changed to four-digit date fields, but that change obviously didn’t catch on right away. The COBOL creators played a huge part in the famous Y2K problem because of the use of two-digit year fields they used and did not fix in time. This huge problem cost many companies millions and they say that many of these companies will not solve the problem within their own business until even as late as 2008. The Y2K problem effected the world as a whole and showed COBOL’s impact globally. Analyst firm Gartner estimates that applications managing about 85 percent of the world's business data are written in COBOL.